Probabilistic Peak Demand Estimation Using Members of the Clayton Generalized Gamma Copula Family

Climate change impacts many aspects of life and requires innovative thinking on various issues. The electricity sector is affected in several ways, including changes the production components consumption patterns. One most important issues for Independent System Operators, a state-controlled organization responsible ensuring reliability, availability, quality delivery country, response to climate change. This reflected appropriate design units cope with increase demand due extreme heat cold events development models aimed at predicting probability such events. In our work, we address this challenge by proposing novel model peak as function wet temperature (henceforth simply temperature), which weighting humidity. We study relationship between using new Archimedean copula family, shown be effective purpose. Clayton generalized Gamma, multi-parameter that comprises members. Two measures fit, an economic measure conditional coverage measure, were introduced select family member based empirical data daily minimum winter. Gamma showed lowest cost best was, therefore, proven family.